Why this year’s ‘September Surge’ might be more like a blip

While September is back-to-school season for students, it’s typically back-to-hiring season for employers. Called the September Surge, it’s the time of year when companies recruit new employees to ramp up for the fourth quarter and use up any remaining staffing-budget dollars.

This year, however, experts say the surge isn’t as strong as in the past. August’s labor market numbers fell 18,000 new jobs short of Morningstar economist projections. What’s more, entry-level positions may be harder to find for those just embarking on their careers, according to Arran Stewart, cofounder and chief visionary officer of the job search website Job.com.

“In some junior-white-collar roles, [there appear] to be three to four times more applicants than jobs available right now, resulting in much higher application numbers and competition,” he says.

“Companies have put the brakes on hiring young people out of college,” says Tom Gimbel, founder of LaSalle Network and vice chairman of American Staffing Association, “which is somewhat cause for concern. That tends to be a warning sign because [new graduates] are usually the cheapest labor. I don’t think 2025 is going to be a stellar year.”

What’s making an impact

The surge—or lack thereof—will depend on the field. Cliff Jurkiewicz, vice president of global strategy for the HR tech company Phenom, is seeing a “massive pullback” in the tech sector due to AI. “A significant number of tech companies are not only creating AI tools such as ChatGPT, due to the benefits it offers, but they are also working to create efficiencies in the broader adoption of AI,” he says. “So, while tech is leading the way in terms of adoption, they are also leading the way in terms of the transformation of work.”

Heather Doshay, head of people and talent at venture capital firm SignalFire, expects that industries, such as retail and healthcare, will continue their seasonal growth, while sectors like software will take a more moderate approach. “Startups, for the most part, have kept head counts flat overall, with functions like recruiting shrinking but areas such as AI/ML engineering growing,” she says.

Gimbel says job openings that don’t directly impact company revenue are especially in decline. “There are [fewer] people in marketing getting hired, for example,” he says. “Historically, what you see in a recession is that marketing and human resources get hit first. It seems to be that way with recent graduate hiring too.”

What industries might still have a September Surge

However, some industries are recession-proof, says Gimbel, such as healthcare and key technology roles, like cybersecurity and software development and engineering.

“I’m still surprised that manufacturing hasn’t come back faster in this country,” he says. “I thought post-COVID, we’d bring it back, but I guess we have a short memory. I think what got in the way is the hourly wage.”

The uncertainty surrounding the presidential election is also a factor, says Jurkiewicz. “The U.S. economy is the largest in the world,” he says. “What happens here affects everything else. So naturally, the globe is waiting to see what happens in November. It actually doesn’t matter who gets elected. The uncertainty is creating doubt as to whether we should react.”

Jurkiewicz advises hiring managers to not react at all. “Wait for it to play out and whoever wins just means that a decision has been made,” he says.

What to do if you’re in the job market

If you’re looking for a job, the first thing to do is check your expectations. The strong economy of the past 10 to 15 years created a shift in mindset, especially for new grads, says Gimbel. “Many expect to get their ‘dream job’ right out of college,” he says. “That works in a gung-ho economy where every company is hiring. But that’s just not that practical in a more traditional economy like we’re seeing today. People need to get their foot in the door. I think we’re going to go back to some of those stories of people starting in the mail room and getting promoted from there.”

Stewart agrees: “Look for experience in any place you can find it,” he says. “It’s not a bad idea to simply work in jobs that give you an income and experience, even if they are not necessarily the career starter you were looking for.”

Some of the challenges are also due to increased competition from laid-off experienced workers and the automation of entry-level roles like customer support, says Doshay.

“New grads should focus on building transferable skills and applying those to industries that are surging,” she recommends. “Contract and temporary roles can also offer valuable experience and often convert to full-time positions and are a great option for new grads while they work to build in-demand skills that can ultimately enhance their job prospects.”

Finally, job seekers should consider how their skills can be applied to sectors that are growing steadily, such as healthcare, suggests Doshay. “While you may not be a trained medical professional, healthcare organizations have all the same administrative functions as other businesses,” she says.