What is the red mirage or blue shift—and why could it be so important in the 2024 election?

Election night has a language all its own, as terms like “dangling chads” and “purple state” don’t tend to come up too often in odd-numbered years. But as election night 2024 draws near, you’ll likely be regularly hearing two newer pieces of jargon: red mirage and blue shift.

The terms are fairly interchangeable—and largely came to prominence in 2020. But with the 2024 race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump as close as it is, they could be an even more pronounced part of election night coverage.

The terms refer to an election night phenomenon where the Republican (red) party appears to be headed for a victory in a state early in the tabulation of votes, but that edge disappears as a large number of Democratic (blue) votes are counted later.

It’s a phenomenon that’s typically the result of how election laws work in many states. Ballots cast in person on Election Day are generally counted first. Mailed-in and absentee ballots come later, sometimes days later. And, historically, Democratic voters have been more likely to vote by mail, while Republican voters tend to do so on Election Day, “shifting” the final results.

Those swings were especially pronounced in 2020, when Donald Trump took a temporary lead in certain states, including Arizona and Georgia, and declared victory. Later, the count in both of those states flipped to Joe Biden. Trump claimed, without evidence, that this was the result of ballot-box stuffing and even called on the U.S. Supreme Court to stop the counting of these “late” votes, even though all were cast by Election Day.

Trump seems to be laying the groundwork for another possible fraud claim in 2024, should the red mirage and blue shift once again be a factor in deciding the race. For weeks, he has been pre-claiming that the election was “rigged” and pledged to jail anyone involved in 2024 election “cheating.”

How much of a factor will the red mirage be in 2024?

While there has been growing talk about a red mirage and blue shift on Election Night, several key states are taking steps to ensure votes are counted quicker. New election laws in Georgia are letting people vote early in person and state officials have said they hope to have all votes counted before midnight on Nov. 5. (Overseas ballots and votes from military personnel, which could number more than 20,000, will be accepted through Nov. 8, which could shift the balance, depending on the tightness of the race in that state, however.)

Pennsylvania, meanwhile, will require counties to announce on midnight of election night how many mailed ballots remain to be counted, in an effort to improve transparency. And Nevada is allowing in-person votes to be tabulated before polls close (though mail-in votes will be accepted until four days after Nov. 5).

Could there be a blue mirage and a red shift in 2024?

While Democrats have historically voted early and via mail, Trump has been urging his supporters to vote early for the past several months. “We’re here today because early voting begins in Pennsylvania over the next two weeks, and we need each and every one of you to go out,” he told a crowd in late September. “Just don’t take anything for granted.” (That said, Trump is still highly critical of early voting, calling it “stupid” in that same speech.)

It’s not just Trump making the call to vote early. So, too, is his running mate JD Vance and Michael Whatley, chair of the Republican National Committee. And data shows Republican voters are listening. Republican ballots are outpacing Democrat ones so far in Arizona, Nevada, and North Carolina. Democratic ballots have a heavy lead in Pennsylvania. And there’s no breakdown available for Michigan, Wisconsin, or Georgia.