The U.K.’s bold plan to switch to EVs is working

Last month, roughly one out of every five new cars sold in the U.K. was electric. Just five years ago, the country’s market share for EVs was only 1.6%.

It’s a sign that the U.K.’s plan to shift to electric cars is on track. By 2035, it aims to reach 100% zero emissions vehicles for new car sales, with manufacturers hitting new targets for EVs that ramp up each year along the way. The zero-emissions vehicle mandate first went into effect at the beginning of 2024.

Mercedes and BMW leading the way

Already, some automakers in the country are selling more EVs than they’re required to. (The math is a little complicated—the target for this year is 22% of all new cars sold, though for the first three years of the program, manufacturers can offset that number if they shrink emissions in other ways, such as by selling hybrid cars.) BMW is on track to sell nearly 25% EVs, and Mercedes will likely hit a similar percentage.

“You’ve got these two big German legacy car manufacturers not just meeting the targets but exceeding them,” says Colin Walker, head of transport at the London-based nonprofit Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit. “That’s what gives me confidence that we can get to 100% sales in 2035.”

Some others are struggling, like Ford, though Walker argues that’s because of a lack of preparation. “All of the manufacturers in the U.K. have known for years that the ZEV mandate was coming,” he says. “Ford managed to start the beginning of 2024 with a grand total of one electric model on sale. What strategic decisions were made to get you to a place where you only have one EV available to sell at the beginning of the year when you’re going to have mandated targets to hit?”

Price parity is getting closer

Automakers have argued that to hit the sales targets, they’re having to offer steep discounts on EVs. But that’s a sign that the new law is working, Walker says. “It’s engineered competition,” he says. “Manufacturers are reducing their prices as they compete with each other to secure the sales they need to get to hit their targets. And that’s driving prices down, which is driving sales up.”

Overall car sales have dropped—diesel sales last month were about a fifth lower than they were a year ago, and gas car sales fell 14%. But EV sales were around 25% higher.

Some electric cars are already at price parity with gas cars in the U.K. The British brand Vauxhall, for example, offers leases of electric versions of its cars at the same price as the gas versions. As the cost of batteries continues to drop, and economies of scale grow, many others could be as cheap as gas or diesel cars within the next couple of years. Unlike the U.S. and Europe, the U.K. also hasn’t yet put in place a steep tariff on imports of cheap Chinese EVs, so that’s another option for consumers.

In general, EVs are more affordable in the U.K. than they are in the U.S. “Cars in the U.S. have gotten larger and larger and accordingly more expensive,” says Dale Hall, a senior researcher at the International Council on Clean Transportation. (The bigger the car, the bigger the battery required.) “There’s also a demand for having a longer range from the US driven partially by the larger distances that people drive here, but also by consumer preference,” he says. “The average range of EVs in the U.K. and other markets in Europe has gone up over the years, but it is lower than in the U.S., and that definitely helps a lot to make them more affordable.”

Secondhand electric cars, which aren’t counted in the target, have also already reached price parity with fossil fuel cars. Around 80% of car sales in the U.K. are secondhand. Consumers can immediately benefit from the fact that fueling EVs costs less than gas, and EVs need fewer repairs. “That barrier, if you’re buying secondhand, has gone,” says Walker. “You can start saving money the moment you drive your EV off the lot. That’s truly significant.”

A California model, with a British twist

The U.K.’s zero-emissions mandate is modeled on a program that started in California. “The U.K. put their own twist on it and strengthened it in several ways,” says Hall. The U.K. has more ambitious targets per year, and doesn’t include hybrids as zero-emissions vehicles. Still, the program is working in California, too. In the third quarter of this year, battery electric vehicles made up 23.7% of overall new car sales. (In the U.S. overall, a record 1.2 million EVs were sold in 2023, but that was still only 7.6% of total sales.)

Several U.S. states have also adopted California’s target, though it’s an open question how much those plans could be at risk during a second Trump administration. The European Union also has a 2035 target for zero-emissions vehicles. In Norway, where EVs made up more than 96% of total sales in August, the goal could be reached as soon as next year.

Challenges remain

There are still challenges in the U.K., including rolling out the number of charging stations that are needed. But the zero-emissions mandate can help with that, too. “The charging industry is very supportive of keeping the ZEV mandate in place, because for them to roll out new and invest large amounts of money to build new charge points, they have to be confident about what future demand is going to look like,” says Hall.

Having interim targets to hit each year, rather than just an ambitious goal for 2035, is key. “I think that the use of mandates that the UK has in place is a really critical policy to make sure that the market keeps growing at a consistent pace, and gives all of the other stakeholders confidence to make the investments to make sure that everything comes together at the same time,” Hall says.

Hitting the 2035 goal is feasible, Hall says. “It’s not going to be easy, but I think that the pieces are in place to get the U.K. a very good chance of meeting that target, along with a lot of other governments have set similar targets,” he says.