New Mexico’s oil investments are paying off. Here’s where the funds may go

Efforts by New Mexico to save and invest portions of a financial windfall from local oil production are paying off as state government income on investments surpasses personal income tax collections for the first time, according to a new forecast Monday.General fund income from the state’s two, multibillion-dollar permanent funds and interest on treasury accounts is expected to climb to $2.1 billion for the fiscal year between July 2024 and June 2025, surpassing $2 billion in revenue from personal income taxes.The investment earnings are designed to ensure that critical programs—ranging from childcare subsidies to tuition-free college and trade school education—endure if oil income falters amid a possible transition to new sources of energy.At the same time, legislators this year revised personal income tax brackets to lower taxes in the nation’s No. 2 state for oil production behind Texas.“We’re not a poor state anymore,” said Democratic state Sen. George Muñoz of Gallup. “We’ve got things that we can win on—free education, childcare . . . low taxes for working families, for children. And that’s all because we’ve done a lot of the work to set this up for the future.”The comments came at a legislative panel Monday where economists from four government agencies announced an income estimate for the coming year. The figures are the baseline for budget negotiations when the Democratic-led Legislature convenes in January.State government income, which is closely linked to oil production in New Mexico, continues to grow, though at a slower pace, as legislators discuss new investments in social programs aimed at curbing crime and homelessness.Economists estimate the state will bring in a record-setting $13.6 billion in general fund income for the fiscal year that runs from July 2025 to June 2026, a 2.6% increase over the current period.This year’s income bump leaves room for an additional $892 million in state spending in the coming fiscal year, a 7% increase, according to the Legislature’s accountability and budgeting office. State income is forecast to exceed current bedrock annual spending obligations by $3.4 billion.New Mexico legislators are pushing to open new savings accounts.One proposal would set aside as much as $1 billion in a trust to underwrite spending on mental health and addiction treatment in response to public frustration with crime and homelessness. Legislators also are likely to revisit a stalled proposal to create a trust for Native American education that could expand Indigenous language instruction.

—Morgan Lee, Associated Press