Housing market power shift: 10 markets where buyers just got the edge

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Lately, the housing market has been shifting in some areas of the country. To identify which metro area markets might offer buyers the most luck or power right now, ResiClub analyzed the sale-to-list ratio calculated by Zillow and released this month.

A sale-to-list ratio above 1.0 means the typical home in that metro sold for more than the list price, while a ratio below 1.0 means the typical home sold for less than the list price.

While a sale-to-list ratio closer to 0.95 doesn’t necessarily mean local home prices are falling, it does likely signal a softer market compared to fellow markets with a ratio closer to 1.05.

Among the 200 largest metro area housing markets, these 10 markets have the highest sale-to-list ratio (home sellers have greater power):

1. Rochester, NY: 1.14
2. Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY: 1.06
3. Ithaca, NY: 1.06
4. Syracuse, NY: 1.05
5. San Jose-Sunnyvale, CA: 1.05
6. Hartford-East Hartford, CT: 1.04
7. San Francisco-Oakland, CA: 1.04
8. Auburn, NY: 1.03
9. Trenton-Princeton, NJ: 1.03 
10. Lewiston-Auburn, ME: 1.03

Among the 200 largest metro area housing markets, these 10 have the lowest sale-to-list ratio (homebuyers have greater power) :

1. Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL: 0.95
2. Naples-Marco Island, FL: 0.95
3. Hickory-Lenoir-Morganton, NC: 0.95
4. Punta Gorda, FL: 0.96
5. New Orleans-Metairie, LA: 0.96
6. Crestview-Fort Walton, FL: 0.96
7. Gainesville, FL: 0.96
8. Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX: 0.96
9. Miami-Fort Lauderdale, FL: 0.96
10. North Port-Sarasota, FL: 0.96

In other words, in Rochester, the typical home is selling for 14% above its list price on average, while in Cape Coral, the typical home is selling for around 5% below its list price.

Certain parts of the Southwest and Southeast, particularly Gulf Coast markets and Florida, are showing signs of greater weakness with homebuyers gaining power, while housing markets in the Midwest, Northeast, and Southern California remain relatively tight with home sellers retaining their power.

During the pandemic housing boom, housing demand skyrocketed, fueled by ultralow interest rates, stimulus measures, and a surge in remote work. However, total housing stock is not nearly as flexible and cannot expand quickly. This mismatch drained the market of active inventory and sent home prices soaring—by September 2024, U.S. home prices were 50.9% higher than in March 2020. These rapid price gains, combined with the sharp rise in mortgage rates in 2022, have strained affordability, reducing housing demand and exposing some markets to price corrections.

Yet, the effects of these pressures vary significantly by region. In parts of the Sun Belt and Mountain West, where pandemic-fueled migration and home price growth were particularly pronounced, affordability challenges have weighed heavily on the market.

As migration slowed and rates spiked, some pandemic boomtowns experienced softer demand and, in some cases, slipped into mild home price corrections. In several of these markets, which have higher levels of homebuilding—such as Austin, Punta Gorda, and Tampa—builders, in an effort to attract buyer demand, have had to offer larger incentives or cut prices outright. These measures have drawn buyers away from the resale market, creating additional challenges for existing home sellers and causing active inventory to rise.