Home price forecasts for 380 regional housing markets: Zillow Vs. Moody’s

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Among the 26 forecasts tracked by ResiClub in its final 2025 home price forecast roundup, the average prediction is a +2.7% increase in U.S. home prices this year.

Keep in mind that the above figure is a forecast for nationally aggregated home prices. On a regional and local basis, home price swings can vary greatly from the national figure. For example, on a year-over-year basis, U.S. home prices as measured by the Zillow Home Value Index are up 2.6%, while home prices in the Rochester, New York metro area are up 8.2% and home prices in the Punta Gorda, Florida metro area are down 8.3% during that same timeframe.

To better understand how regional home prices may vary in 2025, ResiClub reached out to economists at Zillow—whose forecast of U.S. home prices rising by +2.9% in calendar 2025 aligns with the average model—and economists at Moody’s—whose forecast of U.S. home prices falling by -0.4% in 2025 is among the most bearish—to gather their metro-level home price forecasts.

Let’s take a look at the metro-level forecasts.

Click here to view an interactive of Zillow’s 2025 metro area home price forecast.

Why does Zillow think most housing markets will see positive home price appreciation in 2025?

Zillow economists write that: “Opposing forces are working to keep home values climbing, but only at a modest pace. Inventory remains very low by historical standards, which, paired with expectations for declining mortgage rates and modest improvements in other leading indicators of home sales, is helping to buoy home value appreciation. At the same time, modest increases in new for-sale listings and persistently high mortgage rates are combining to limit price growth.”

Click here to view an interactive of Moody’s 2025 metro area home price forecast.

The forecast by Moody’s chief economist Mark Zandi has U.S. home prices, as measured by the Moody's Analytics Repeat Sales House Price Index, falling 0.4% in 2025, followed by 0.7% uptick in 2026.

Why is Moody’s still slightly bearish when it comes to home prices?

“We expect homes for sale to steadily increase as more existing homeowners need to sell for demographic reasons—death, divorce, children, job change—and lower mortgage rates help ease their interest rate lock. The [potentially] lower rates will also support housing demand, but the increase in housing supply will be even more significant, weighing on house price gains,” Zandi tells ResiClub.

In total, there are 380 metro-area housing markets for which both Zillow and Moody’s are forecasting 2025 home prices. (See the interactive chart above.) That includes:

193 markets: Metros that both Zillow and Moody’s forecast will see a home price increase

156 markets: Metros that Zillow forecast will see a home price increase and Moody’s forecast will see a home price decline

22 markets: Metros that Zillow forecast will see a home price decrease and Moody’s forecast will see a home price increase

9 markets: Metros that both Zillow and Moody’s forecast will see a home price decline

What is ResiClub’s take? Broadly speaking, housing markets where inventory (i.e., active listings) has returned to pre-pandemic levels have experienced weaker home price growth (or outright declines) over the past 30 months since the pandemic housing boom fizzled out. Conversely, housing markets where inventory remains far below pre-pandemic levels have, generally speaking, experienced stronger home price growth over the past 30 months.

Using active inventory as a guide, we expect the greatest pricing resilience in 2025 to be in Midwest and Northeast markets, while the greatest pricing softness is likely in Gulf markets such as New Orleans, Austin, and Punta Gorda. Zillow appears to be overly optimistic about Southwest Florida, whereas we believe Moody’s is too bearish on the West Coast.

Regardless of how regional inventory (see our latest monthly inventory update) or regional home prices (see our latest monthly home price update) perform in 2025, we’ll be closely tracking the trends to keep you informed of any shifts.