Don’t expect Taylor Swift to swing the Gen Z vote

Former President Barack Obama recently posted a plea on X, begging young people to vote. “You wouldn’t let a bunch of old people decide what music you’re going to listen to or what clothes you’re going to wear, so don’t let them decide your future.”

America’s future—not just for this election but for elections to come—will lie in the hands of Gen Z. To understand what they are thinking and how they are thinking about the upcoming presidential election between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump, NBC News Stay Tuned conducted a poll of more than 2,000 registered voters between the ages of 18 and 29. The poll is part of a seven-year effort by the news outlet to understand this generation of younger Americans.

Fast Company was given an exclusive preview of the results. The full results will air Thursday on NBC Nightly News at 6:30 p.m. ET, as well as on the NBC News and Stay Tuned TikTok channels.

“For the past several years, NBC News has made it an editorial priority to understand and inform the Gen Z audience,” Catherine Kim, EVP of editorial for NBC News, noted. “[This] poll is a continuation of our commitment.”

Here are some key insights:

Harris and Walz lead

Fifty-six percent of Gen Zers who plan to vote say they’ll support Harris, and 36% Trump. By comparison, during the 2020 election, NBC found Biden had a 24-point lead with Gen Z.

About half of young voters have a positive opinion of Harris’s running mate, Governor Tim Walz of Minnesota, and 27% have a negative opinion of him. Meanwhile, about a third of Gen Z voters have a positive opinion of Trump’s VP pick, Senator JD Vance of Ohio, and 45% have a negative opinion of him.

There’s a large gender gap

Fifty-nine percent of Gen Z women said they preferred Harris, compared to 26% who preferred Trump. Meanwhile, 42% of Gen Z men said they preferred Harris and 40% said they preferred Trump.

While both genders selected cost of living as the most important issue for their vote, 13% of Gen Z women said abortion was their second most important issue compared to 4% of Gen Z men. Meanwhile 13% of Gen Z men said threats to democracy was their second most important issue compared to 9% of Gen Z women.

Nearly half of Gen Z women (48%) said they would only vote for a candidate who supported abortion compared to 36% of Gen Z men.

Taylor Swift probably isn’t swinging the vote

Forty-five percent of Gen Z voters said they pay the most attention to the opinions of their family, friends, and colleagues when deciding who to vote for, and 38% said they pay attention to endorsements from political leaders.

Only 8% said they paid attention to celebrity endorsements. Furthermore, 11% of Gen Z said Taylor Swift’s endorsement makes them more likely to vote for Harris, but 19% of Gen Z voters said her endorsement makes them less likely to vote for Harris.

Young voters are not happy with the status quo

However, Gen Z did agree on one point: They don’t think the United States is headed in the right direction. In August, 67% said they thought the country is headed in the wrong direction. As of October, the number has jumped to 77%.