More than a month after the Trump administration forced a nearly complete wind farm off the coast of Rhode Island and Connecticut to stop construction—costing the developers more than $2 million per day—the project just resumed work.
On August 22, the government issued a stop-work order for the Revolution Wind project, which is designed to power 350,000 homes. It cited unspecified “national security concerns” despite years of review by federal agencies including the Department of Defense. Hundreds of workers were left idle. On September 22, a federal judge granted the developers a preliminary injunction to allow construction to continue. Judge Royce Lamberth, appointed to the U.S. District Court by President Ronald Reagan in 1987, said that the Trump administration’s arguments were “the height of arbitrary and capricious,” and noted that if construction didn’t begin immediately, the project was at risk of failing completely.
But the project, which is 80% done, still faces some risks. And the government’s attack makes it less likely for other offshore wind projects to be built—even after Trump is out of office.
The Trump administration could still challenge the project
The government has 60 days to file an appeal. That may not happen: It’s possible that the administration could give up. “The court’s opinion is right on in terms of the utter illegality of what the government was attempting to do here,” says Kate Sinding Daly, senior vice president for law and policy at the Conservation Law Foundation. “So it may be that they just decide to take the loss. But they might appeal, and if they do, the developer has to weigh that risk against the urgency of getting this project completed.”
One industry legal expert told Fast Company that even within the administration, some Interior Department staff want to focus on other things—like building more oil and gas projects or a $625 million plan to “rescue coal”—rather than trying to kill the offshore wind industry, especially at a time when the president argues that there’s an energy emergency.
Still, Trump may want to appeal. “The administration has what we’ve described as a retaliatory posture towards offshore wind,” says Timothy Fox, managing director at the research firm ClearView Energy Partners. “To the extent that it doesn’t like losing, they may try to look for any avenue or any lever they can pull to try to stop this project.”
It’s different from the Empire Wind project in New York (which the administration also tried to stop but then let proceed after New York’s governor reportedly made a backroom deal with Trump to allow an unpopular gas pipeline to also move forward in the state). There, Trump can point to getting something in return. In the case of Revolution Wind, the administration clearly lost, and may want to keep fighting.
What are the odds of an appeal?
An appeal is unlikely to succeed. The government would have to argue that there was a clear reason to stop the project, something that the first judge found that it had failed to do. But “who’s on the bench hearing the appeal is incredibly important,” says Mark James, a professor at Vermont Law and Graduate School. The case shouldn’t win on the merits, experts say, but judges sympathetic to Trump might find creative ways to interpret the law. (That could also be true if the case reaches the Supreme Court, though it’s more likely that the Court would decline to hear the case; it chose not to hear a case about the neighboring Vineyard Wind project.)
Agencies took a long time to carefully review the project, like other wind projects, before the permits were issued in the first place. “Part of the reason offshore wind projects have, to date, overcome judicial challenges was because the Biden administration knew that these projects would be challenged in court,” Fox says. “They didn’t want to move fast in the short term just to lose on the back end. So they took their time issuing permits that could withstand judicial review.”
Sinding Daly adds, “What I would say is that in normal times, it’s probably pretty low risk to go forward [with construction] because of the speciousness of the lawsuit. But we’re not in normal times, clearly. And so it’s very hard to make predictions.”
In theory, the government could also try to find a new reason to stop work on the project, though that would go back to the first judge and almost certainly be shot down. The administration can also carefully monitor construction to look for any potential compliance issues that would allow it to temporarily stop or slow the project again.
Construction is racing forward
As the threat from the government continues, workers are racing forward on the wind farm. In total, the project will include 65 massive wind turbines that will power homes in Rhode Island and Connecticut. Forty-five turbines are in place now. Installing the remaining 20 will take around three months. Crews also have to finish installing cables and connecting the power. Testing everything will take more time.
It’s not clear how much can be finished before winter weather pauses the work. There could be other challenges, including whether specialized vessels that the developers need to lease for construction will still be available as long as the company needs them. Revolution Wind declined to comment on how much the delay over the past month has changed the overall timeline for the project.
It may still be possible that it could finish next year, as planned, barring further legal delays. Once complete, since all of the federal permits were already issued, the project should be safe to begin sending power to shore.
A chilling effect on offshore wind
The government is still trying to revoke its approval of multiple other offshore wind projects, including SouthCoast Wind, a giant development near Massachusetts, and the Maryland Offshore Wind Project. Other projects are facing lawsuits that the federal government is declining to fight.
The industry is also facing rising costs. It’s extremely unlikely that any new projects will start during the Trump administration. But it’s also becoming less viable for projects to move forward afterward. States like Massachusetts have told utilities they need to invest in offshore wind. But that won’t work without federal support as well.
“I think this administration is purposely trying to scare away the industry even after they leave office,” says Fox. “A future administration may support the industry—even to the extent that the Biden administration did—but developers and financiers may be wary of investing in a capital-intensive sector with a long lead time that faces such demonstrable election risk. To put it more simply, can you plan a project and get it online all within a four-year period of an administration that says they like offshore wind, before the next Trump 3.0?”
It could set a precedent beyond just the offshore wind industry. A future climate-focused president could decide to revoke existing permits for gas projects, for example. “A future administration could say, ‘Okay, let’s use this growing executive power to stop projects that we don’t like.’ Even if a court ultimately strikes down that action, like you’ve seen with Revolution Wind, it just injects so much uncertainty and risk,” Fox says, adding, “We’re hearing from some of our clients that this is among the most difficult times to invest in the energy sector, which is ironic, given the growing power demand. The political uncertainty is growing.”
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