Are you ready to spend an extra $7,600 a year? You might just have to under Trump’s proposed tariffs

If you take President-elect Donald Trump at his word, things are about to get a lot more expensive.

Throughout his campaign, Trump has kept coming back to the concept of tariffs, which are taxes levied on goods imported into the United States. The Trump campaign has yet to release a policy document with specifics but in speeches, Trump suggested a broad array of possibilities, ranging from a 10% to 20% tariff on all imports into the United States from all countries. He also suggested an additional tariff of between 60% and 100% on all imports from China, on top of existing tariffs, which range from 7.5% to 25%.

America used to be a manufacturing hub, producing everything from clothing to cars. But over the last 50 years, much of this manufacturing moved overseas to China and other Asian countries, where labor was cheaper. This meant the price of everything from T-shirts to furniture went down—but these cheap prices came at the expense of domestic manufacturing jobs. In 1970, roughly 31% of private sector jobs were in manufacturing; by 2023, that was down to 9.7%.

The goal of Trump’s tariffs are to make the price of imported good so high that companies are pressured to bring manufacturing back to the United States. But according to Jon Gold, VP of supply chain and customs policy at the National Retail Federation (NRF), the retail industry’s trade group, it will be impossible to manufacture all the products Americans need domestically. “It’s not something you can do overnight,” he says. “Trying to build those new facilities is going to take time, and we’ve got record unemployment, so where are we going to find workers for those jobs?”

The NRF predicts that the price of many consumer products is going to spike. According to The Budget Lab, Yale University’s nonpartisan policy research center on the American economy, these tariffs could result in American households paying between $1,900 and $7,600 more a year for everyday items. “Consumers will cut back on discretionary spending,” he says. “We’ll focus on essentials.”

The NRF has produced a new report collaboration with Trade Partnership Worldwide, a research organization dedicated to “working with its trading partners to expand and liberalize world trade.” The report has calculated how Trump’s tariffs could raise the cost of production across the supply chain. Here is how much you could end up paying for the goods you buy everyday if Trump makes good on his promise.

Clothing

A pair of $80 men’s jeans—such as these sold by Gap and these sold by Abercrombie & Fitch—could cost between $90 and $96. A $50 women’s cotton sweater—such as this one sold by Macy’s and this one sold by Land’s End—will cost between $56 and $60. The price of infant onesies—such as this three-piece set from Gerber and this one from Carter’s—would increase to $17 or $18. All of these garments are made in China.

There are already steep tariffs on clothing imported from China, to the tune of 14.7%. But the proposed tariffs would increase that average rate to between 37.5% and 56%. The result is that American families would spend between $14 billion and $24 billion more a year on Chinese clothing, up from the around $160 billion it currently spends.

The NRF points out that these costs would disproportionally impact low-income families, who are already struggling with inflation. Low-income households spend three times as much of their income on apparel as high-income households do. “While the increases in dollar terms may seem inconsequential, they are not for lower-income families already struggling to make ends meet,” the NRF report reads.

Toys

If you thought the apparel price increases were steep, the price of toys is going to go up even more, by as much as 56%. This means a $50 tricycle, such as this one made by Radio Flyer, would cost between $68 and $78. A $17 stuffed toy, such as these popular Squishmallows—would cost between $23 and $27.

The reason for this high increase is that the toy industry has so far been excluded from a specific tariff on imports from China. Right now, U.S. tariffs on toy imports is just 0.1%, but with the Trump tariffs, they would increase to between 56.5% and 97.4%, according to the NRF. The United States produces less than 1% of toys sold domestically; meanwhile China is responsible for 77% of all toy imports. It would be very difficult to quickly bring toy production back to the United States. So for the time being, consumers will be stuck paying much more for toys.

Furniture

Like clothing, a lot of the furniture that Americans buy is made overseas, particularly in China. A $200 crib—like this one from Target or this West Elm one—would cost between $213 and $219. Meanwhile a $1,500 couch—such as this CB2 one or this one from Bob’s Discount Furniture—would cost $1,596 and $1,643.

However, America still has a small but thriving furniture manufacturing sector, particularly in places like North Carolina. The NRF suggests that American manufacturers stand to benefit from these tariffs, and could potentially see their revenues grow by between $2.5 billion and $3.8 billion. But given that wages and raw materials are more expensive in the United States, this locally made furniture is more expensive than furniture made in Asia, so American consumers will not be able to get around paying higher prices.

Household Appliances

The electronics that fill our homes, from our fridges to our washers to our hair dryers, are largely made overseas. And the prices of these goods would increase by a whopping 19% to 31% should the Trump tariff proposals go into effect. This means that the price of a basic fridge—like this one from G.E.—would spike from $650 to between $776 and $852. A $40 toaster oven—like this Black and Decker one—would go up to $48 and $52. The report points out that low-income households spend nearly four times as much as high-income households on household appliances, so they would again be impacted most by price hikes.